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MONTHLY NEWSLETTER

MARCH - April 2007

from Bill Duffey   

RE/MAX Excalibur    480- 585- 2904 

Well, the Buyer's Market continues in full stride.  Lots of listings and few Buyers, for now.   Sales are down - below last year, but that will change by the 4th quarter, however.  Homes are starting to move at a greater rate, than last month, in the  Scottsdale area.  Prices have fallen a bit, but remain strong.  This is also the time of the year that our Winter friends start to BUY.  Historically, those "Johnny-come-lately" folks spend all winter educating themselves and then buy in April and May, before heading home.  Inventories are still extremely high in the North Scottsdale, Carefree and Cave Creek areas. 

Bottom line, we have to shed some more of this excess inventory before we return to a "balanced" market.  That is all anyone wants...some BALANCE.  Great news for Buyer's and not very good news for Seller's, I am afraid.    Now, is the time to BUY!

Top 10 Reasons It's a Great Time to Buy:

1. Selection, selection, selection.
Regardless of price range, there are plenty of houses from which to choose. There's a great selection of attached homes, condos and townhouses. You can find large lots, small lots, and a lot that will accommodate your exact needs. You have many options. When resale inventories are low, Buyers are forced to make compromises.  Not today!

2. No bidding wars.
In 2005, we all knew of at least one family who made offers on 10 homes. They lost the first nine to the feeding frenzy that existed in the market - other Buyers bid the properties up substantially from the original listing prices. There were even escalation clauses, where Buyers authorized their Agents to outbid other offers by thousands of dollars. There's no competitive bidding in the Buyer's market of today.

3. You can make an offer.
A few years ago when you made an offer, the only question was how high above the list price you should reach in hopes of being the “best” offer on the table. Today, the sell price vs. list price ratio is about 96 percent. Sellers won't be insulted if you "make them an offer they can't refuse."

4. Patience is tolerated.
In the hot Seller's market, everything was rushed. One had to find a house before other Buyers did, then hurry up and make the offer. Today, Buyers can take their time - look at several homes and think about their decision for a while.

5. Due diligence is welcomed.
In this market, a Buyer is encouraged to obtain a home inspection, termite inspection and appraisal.  In 2005, many Buyers waived these contingencies in order to gain an advantage.

6. Plenty of specs.
Buyers sometimes had to play games if they wanted a newly built home. There were lotteries and waiting lists. Some Buyers even slept in their cars, in order to get to the head of the line.  Today, builders are begging for Buyers and offering deals to attract them to the front door.  Some are dropping the second property provision, allowing a Buyer to purchase more than one home in a new subdivision.  Take your Realtor with you and negotiate the deal.

7. Repair requests are accepted.
After Buyers complete a home inspection, they're allowed to submit a repair request to the Sellers.  But in the past, Sellers often insisted the home be sold “as-is”.   Many times, there were back-up Buyers waiting for the primary Buyers to upset the Sellers while the home continued to increasing in value, almost daily.

8. Few, if any investors.
It's estimated that one third of all sales in 2005 were to investors.  These Buyers caused the market to inflate and affordability to decline.  Mortgage fraud became commonplace.  It's a great time to buy without having to compete with hundreds of investors and prospective landlords.

9. Location, location, location.
Today's Buyers can find homes closer to work. In this market, reasonably priced homes are within biking or walking distance to schools, rapid transit lines and relatives.

10. Real financing is available.
The "wink, wink" zero-down, no-doc, adjustable, sub-prime loans are gone.  Fixed rates are back.  FHA financing, first-time homeowner bond programs, and special loans for teachers or police officers are back in business.

The bottom line: It's a great time to buy real estate in Scottsdale!

****************************

Listings are higher than last year and sales are down. Ask prices are coming down, as the length on market drags on.  Those that have reduced their listing prices are selling their homes and realizing excellent returns on their investments.  Far above historical rates (see chart, below).  Those who are trying to ride it out, thinking it is 2005, will not make it.  They will have to try again, this Fall.  Remember, the MLS "days-on-market" re-set is 90 days off-market; perfect for the Summer.  If you leave your home on during the summer, you will attract all sorts of "low-ball" offers.  That has been true, historically.  Seller beware!

Hope you find this newsletter to be informative.  As you know, I don't mix my words when it comes to this market.  Let me know what you think!  Would appreciate the feedback. 

********************************* 

**  ** 

Mortgage Rates > snapshot 3/20/08 via Bankrate     

Scottsdale activity - February - All types in all price ranges.

North Scottsdale areas are 401 and 407. 

***************************************************************************************

Statewide Data - LISTINGS

Statewide Data - SOLD

Trend Analysis

  * 

*********************** Featured Listings *******************

LOST CANYON - Gated/Guarded  $1,349,000  4.39 Acres Lot 29

  Call me for more information!

************** Historical Return on Investment as of 2007 ******* ************

2005 was the year!

  All Chart Data Courtesy of the AZ Republic 2008

 

By Zip Code

****************************

A BUYER’S MARKET - Defined

Our definition of a “buyer’s market” is when an over-supply condition exists, causing supply to have a greater impact on the market than demand.  The characteristics of a buyer’s market are:

            - Inventory level is high

            - Demand is not keeping pace with the inventory level

            - Time-on-market is increasing or high

            - Sales price is decreasing

*************************************************************

Scottsdale Violent Crime At Lowest Level In 23 Years

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Real Estate "Buyer's" Agent

A real estate Buyer's Agent represents the consumer who is purchasing the property in the real estate transaction. This agent owes full fiduciary responsibilities, duties, and loyalty to the real estate buyer. The Buyer's Agent works for the buyer client and has the clients' best interests in mind throughout the entire real estate transaction process.

The agent is sometimes compensated by the Buyer through a negotiated fee or percentage. In Arizona the commission is paid by the Seller or split between the Buyer's and Seller's agents based on the selling price of the real estate property. It is important for the consumer to discuss the buyer agent's compensation in the initial interview. In many cases it is recommended that the consumer and buyer agent agree to the terms of compensation prior to viewing real estate properties and sign a written agreement based on these terms. This agreement (Buyer's Agreement) should spell out the responsibilities of both parties throughout the real estate transaction. 

Consult your local REALTOR® for complete details when you first start the search for purchasing any real estate property.

The Benefits of Using a Buyers Agent

Using a Buyers Representative offers the consumer many benefits. These benefits include:

Evaluating the specific needs and wants of the buyer, and locating properties that fit those specifications.

Assisting the buyer in determining the amount that they can afford (pre-qualify) and showing properties in that price range and locale the consumer has determined.

Assisting in viewing properties and either accompanying the client on the showings, or previewing the properties on behalf of the client to insure that the identified specifications are met.

Researching the selected properties to identify any problems or issues to help the consumer in making an informed decision prior to making an appropriate offer on the property.

Advising the client on structuring an appropriate offer to purchase the selected property.

Presenting the offer to the seller’s agent and seller on the client’s behalf.

Negotiating on behalf of the buyer client to help obtain the identified property. Keep in mind that the buyer agent will be doing so with their client's best interests in mind!

Reviewing and explaining all legal documents to their buyer client.

Recommending and assisting in securing appropriate financing for the selected property.

Providing a list of potential qualified vendors, e.g. movers, attorneys, carpenters if these services are needed by the consumer.

Most importantly, the buyer would know that they are fully represented throughout the real estate transaction.

*Data via Trulia.com   **Homes.com

**************************  OTHER NEWS *******************  Click on the links for details:

As I related a few days ago, the FHA limits were increased to
$346,250.00 - a VERY good things.   HOWEVER, the latest word on the
conventional loans is that the current loan limit of $417,000.00 WILL NOT
be increased in the State of Arizona except in Flagstaff where the ceiling
will be $450,000.00.  
 
This means that it will be business as usual for the rest of the State of Arizona
with Jumbo pricing still beginning at anything above the $417,000.00 loan amount.

Corona: Agent raped, stabbed -- while showing a house
Los Angeles Times - CA,USA
but this is the most disturbing story I've heard: "Authorities say a real estate agent was raped and repeatedly stabbed by a man she was showing a vacant ...
See all stories on this topic

There is a new FHA loan limit becoming available in Maricopa County - $346,250.00
What this means is that your buyers can now purchase a home for $357,000.00 with
just a 3.00% down payment using FHA financing. 

State heading for recession, index suggests

Fewer people moving to Arizona, real estate market top culprit
Bizjournals.com - Charlotte,NC,USA
Migration to Arizona from other states declined 34 percent last year, but the state still ranked in the top four for domestic moves. ...
See all stories on this topic

SEC Charges Real Estate Promoters with Fraud
CCH Wall Street - New York,NY,USA
By Aaron Seward The SEC has filed fraud charged against three Murrieta, California, real estate promoters who allegedly ran a Ponzi-like scheme that ...
See all stories on this topic

Coast to coast, hard times for the states
Philadelphia Inquirer - Philadelphia,PA,USA
California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida are among those hardest hit by the real estate slump. "The thing that troubles me is that it does seem the state ...
See all stories on this topic

 

CNNMoney.com:        "Major lenders put freeze on foreclosures" / "Jumbo mortgages:
The best deals" / "Home builder outlook remains dim" / ""Subprime loans defaulting
even before resets" / "Good credit?  Here's your reward" / "Mortgage crisis: Don't forgive
debt, just postpone repayment" / "Foreclosure prevention plan under attack" / "Interest 
rates: The new conundrum...long-term rates are once again moving in the opposite 
direction of the Fed..." / "January foreclosures up 57%" / "Home price plunge accelerates" /
"Say good-bye to granite countertops" / "Fed officials: Housing crisis critical"
 
USA TODAY:            "Builders' stocks rise as home sales fall" / "Low mortgage rates make
refinancing attractive" / "Growing number of foreclosure sales feeds vicious cycle" / "Falling
home sales problem spreads to 45 states" / "Housing prices take biggest dive since 1991" /
"Credit losses from mortgage crisis could hit $400 Billion"
 
CBS NEWS:            "Anatomy Of An Intentional Foreclosure" / "'Staging' Your Home To
Lure Buyers" / "Mortgage Late Payments Hit 21-Year High"
 
abcNEWS:                "Home Prices:  How Low Can They Go?" / "Could You Walk Away
From Your Mortgage?" 
 
MSNBC:                    "New program aims to forestall foreclosures" / "Housing construction
posts modest gain" / Solving housing mess without using the b-word (bailouts)"
 
Bloomberg.com        "Bernanke Pledges Fed Will Act in a 'Timely Manner'"
 
THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC:    "Under-$200,000.00 market gives home sales a push" / "West
Valley woes...West Valley home valuations tumble" / "Experts debate direction...Where's 
the bottom?" / "Jumbo-loan rates unlikely to dip-Portion of economic stimulus may not
work"

New Scottsdale Economic Study reports a record $3.3 billion reinvestment

in Downtown and southern Scottsdale

Downturn hits hard in West Valley

2007's rate of inflation largest since 1991: 4.1%

******************************  Miscellaneous  **************************************************

Did you know that one of the most dangerous places in the world is your home?

Many accidents are caused, especially when children get into things that they don't understand. Electricity is one of those dangers. For example, did you know that you could insert an ordinary key ring through the holes in an electrical plug prong? That quick step will make it almost impossible for a child to insert the plug in a wall outlet. Easy, isn't it? Of course, as children get older, they can outsmart this safety precaution.

As you get older, you may be tempted to try something dangerous like guessing about the value of your home. Or making improvements without analyzing how they will benefit (or cost) you. Don't take a chance. Call on me before you do anything hazardous to your financial well being, won't you? You'll be glad you did!

**************************************************

If you get into a job that's over your head, call a professional.  I never accept any remuneration from any vendor!

GO TO MY CONCIERGE PAGE FOR A LIST OF VENDORS. <click here

Hope you enjoyed this newsletter...let me know if you have suggestions or if you would like me to write an article on any real estate subject.

Please remember that selling or buying your home is not a "do-it-yourself" project.

Call me, and I'll handle all the details.  I also have a "Moving Coach"!  The service is Free for my clients.

*Always consult your tax adviser.

Please note: This email and any attachments contain confidential and/or privileged information for the sole use of the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient you may not read, disseminate, distribute or copy this email message or any attachments. Please notify the sender immediately (by reply email or phone) if you have received this email message by mistake and delete this email message, along with any attachments from your system. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free, as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, delayed or may be incomplete. The Sender does not accept any liability for any errors, omissions or viruses in the contents of this email message or any attachment. This email also conforms with the Arizona Commercial Electronic Mailing Act of 2003.  Your Privacy is important to me.  I do not share your email information with any other party.  If you do not wish to network in this way and desire to be removed from my newsletter email list, simply send me an email with "remove" in the subject line (click on the "email Bill" link.  You will be excluded from the list, in a few days. Copyright 2008 Bill Duffey.  All Rights Reserved.

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NOTE: If your home or property is currently listed for sale with a licensed Real Estate Broker, this is not intended to be a solicitation of that listing.  It is not our intention to solicit the listing of another real estate Company.

GO TO MY CONCIERGE PAGE FOR A LIST OF VENDORS.

PS: I never receive any compensation from any vendor, ever!

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