November

Well, there is a lot of talk lately about the “R” word. Yes, Recession! Nationally, most analysts are still mixed about that and they will remain so, until January. As stated in last month’s newsletter, our local market will be determined in January, as well. I find it difficult to see a “recession” in the Phoenix area market, unless the national market enters a severe recession.

We are well-suited to withstand a severe national downturn. All of our State and local economic numbers are very good, with the exception of home construction jobs and home sales, of course. The good news is that new building permits are down considerably and that will bode well for the resale market in the months to come. If you are looking for a turn-around in the housing sector, my guess is later next year or 2009. However, 2008 will be the year for foreign investment in Arizona. Housing prices in the North Scottsdale market have not diminished considerably and that is another good sign, to be sure. Our North Scottsdale area is always the last to suffer in any significant downturn. I remain very positive on our market, long term.

The listing count reported in September MLS reports, (released in mid-October) showed listings were 57,970—up 763 listings from the August reports. After a moderate fall-off in the listing count in the fourth quarter of 2006, growth in this number has resumed climbing - to an all time high. The record level of listings prior to January 2005 was 30,046 listings in February 2003. The monthly listing quantity climbed 1.3% from August to September.

Compared to September 2005, Arizona MLS listings have increased by over 40,000!

The MLS reported sales for September dropped 21.4% from the August sales figure with a decrease of 929 sales. On an annually adjusted basis sales were down 2,185 or almost 40% from September 2006. September’s sales quantity is typically less than Augusts’ numbers. However, the drop in sales between these two months far exceeds what could be attributed to the normal calendar cycle. In this normal calendar cycle where sales gradually taper off over the next few months before resuming the climb during the first quarter of each year.

Sales, when compared to one year ago, fell for the twenty-second consecutive month.

As you know, supply and demand are interrelated variables in any market. Currently both of these variables are driving the market. Up until two years ago, demand was the primary driver. Then, for the past two years, supply has been the primary driver. In the last few months demand has also fallen off, substantially, from what is considered the norm - a pace similar to 2002 and 2003.

Because of this prolonged over-supply, appreciation in resale housing prices has totally disappeared. The market has now entered a phase where we are seeing an overall price level decline. A significant price adjustment may be necessary to realign the supply and demand variables. It is very difficult to tell how long this will take!

LOCAL REAL ESTATE NEWS: (just click on the highlighted item to view the full article)

Trend report: Phoenix Commercial market will be hot in '08 <click here for full article
Arizona Republic - Phoenix,AZ,USA
As a result, the ULI study predicts that while Phoenix's commercial real-estate market is likely headed for some kind of correction, it won't be as severe ...

Phoenix to get state's 1st Bloomingdale's <click here for full article (At the 101 and Desert Ridge) The upscale department store is expected to announce as early as next week its plans to open at CityNorth, a mixed-use development going up in north Phoenix. Nordstrom already has committed itself to opening at CityNorth, a 5.5 million-square-foot development with shops, restaurants, residences and offices that is under construction at Loop 101 and 56th Street, next to mega-shopping hub Desert Ridge Marketplace.

Real Estate Market Set to Bottom Out <click here for full article
dBusinessNews Seattle (press release) - Seattle,WA,USA
Phoenix - Arizona Home Builders , National Lenders and the Federal Reserve team up to stimulate the real estate market. October 25, 2007 – Phoenix, ...

Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker <click here for full article
Seeking Alpha - New York,NY,USA
Housing accounts for at least $1 in every $3 that is generated in metropolitan Phoenix. If real estate begins to pick up as predicted by mid-to-late next ...

CNNMoney.com: “Fed cutes rate to 4.5%” / “Cuomo: Subprime loans deliberately inflated… New York’s attorney general accuses First American and Washington Mutual of using appraisers to overstate the value of home loans” / “Vultures eyeing mortgage corpse” / “Citigroup: ‘Gimme Shelter” / “U.S. home prices fall again…Down for the eighth consecutive month; index of 10 large U.S. cities shows a price drop of 5% in August, the largest since 1991” / “ Foreclosures: Moving on up” / “Real estate commissions rise…With the collapse of the sellers’ market, real estate agents are finding themselves in the driver’s seat when it comes to charging fees.”

USA TODAY: “Mortgage rates fall to lowest level in six weeks” / “Home prices fall in August for 8^th straight month” / “Countrywide CEO: More trouble ahead for housing market” / “Criticism rains down on mortgage industry” / “Mortgage rates drop to the lowest level in 5 months” / “Low rates lure refinancers, boost mortgage demand”

MSNBC.com: “Which is worse: foreclosure of bankruptcy?” / “America’s big, fat housing inventory…The supply of homes for sale is at a nine-year high, and still growing” / “Foreclosures jump 30 percent in 3^rd quarter”

abcNEWS: “Federal Reserve Cuts Rates Quarter Point”

Bloomberg.com: “Confidence Weakens, Home Prices Slide”

Scottsdale achieves a major milestone to ensure long-term sustainability of water resources

Water is the lifeblood of a community and always a top concern of mine. I would like to share Scottsdale's recent achievement which demonstrates our steadfast commitment to long-term sustainability of our water resources.

A major milestone has been achieved by Scottsdale. This past year we recharged as much water into the groundwater aquifers as was pumped out from wells. This balance is called "safe yield" and it ensures the long-term sustainability of the city's groundwater resources. Several factors contributed to this achievement, including strategic planning and the construction of the Water Campus. Scottsdale recently received the prestigious Crescordia Award for our Aquifer Sustainability Program during Valley Forward's annual Environmental Awards banquet.

"In 1980 Arizona passed the Groundwater Management Act that set the achievement of "safe yield," a balance between groundwater withdrawal and artificial/natural recharge, as a goal for Phoenix-area water providers. To achieve "safe yield" Scottsdale had to overcome several challenges - primarily its historic 100 percent dependency on groundwater to supply its drinking water, and secondly, the city's wells are located on the upper-end of the aquifer, making the community more vulnerable to water-level decline.

Scottsdale implemented an innovative set of water resource management strategies, which culminated in the city's Aquifer Sustainability Program. Its surface water acquisition program was funded by the first impact fees in the state, developed by Scottsdale, dedicated exclusively toward water supply acquisition. The city now receives approximately 75 percent of its drinking water from two surface water supplies, the Colorado River through the Central Arizona Project, and the Salt and Verde rivers through SRP.

The city then maximized its reclaimed water supply through its Scottsdale Water Campus, which delivers reclaimed water directly to 23.5 golf courses in north Scottsdale for turf irrigation. To better manage groundwater conditions, the city initiated a complex groundwater modeling effort, and helped to establish a strong water conservation ethic as one of the founding partners of the Valleywide "Water - Use It Wisely" campaign." Scottsdale achieved "safe yield" in 2006, a milestone that will help sustain groundwater resources."

Even though safe yield has been achieved, residents are still asked to conserve water and to take advantage of the tips and tools available to them from the city's Water Conservation Office. To learn more about how you can conserve water, please call the office at 480 312-5650.

Scottsdale is a leader in the Valley and the nation in conservation and in using artificial groundwater recharge to enhance the sustainability of the city's water supply. This is an important part of Scottsdale's overall water supply management strategy. Maintaining the city's safe yield balance is the city's next goal.

Attorney General Terry Goddard is warning consumers of a phone scam offering phony financial grants.

The Attorney Generals Office has learned that Arizonans are receiving phone calls from scam artists posing as reputable grant foundations. Consumers are told that they are eligible to receive a grant, often thousands of dollars, either because they are a female small business owner or a senior. Consumers are asked multiple pre-screening questions to determine eligibility for the grant. Upon approval, they are told they must pay a large sum of money up front as well as a finders fee. In return for these fees, they are promised the grant.

This is a scam! These phone calls are fraudulent and are an attempt to gather personal information that could be used to facilitate identity theft.

If you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please contact the Attorney Generals Office in Phoenix at 602.542.5763; in Tucson at 520.628.6504; or outside the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas at 1.800.352.8431. To file a complaint in person, the Attorney Generals Office has 36 satellite offices throughout Arizona with volunteers available to help. Locations and hours are posted on the Attorney Generals Web site at www.azag.gov.

Realtor's Murder Reminds Practitioners To Be Careful Out There <click here for full article
Realty Times - TX,USA
by Blanche Evans The recent murder of a well-loved Albuquerque Realtor has reminded the industry nationwide of the vulnerability of practitioners who so ...

Noise such as a barking dog, an alarm or even music in the background may be enough to spook the burglar. So take a look at your home and do something to make it safer, won't you?

Remote Surveillance Systems Easy to Install
Homeowners who want to monitor their property from a remote location should consider a network surveillance system.

Vincent J. Graham, the president of Security Design Services, says that with such a system, the cameras are connected to a high-speed Internet connection in the house. The connection can be made either wirelessly or by using Ethernet cables. Once the system is set up, each camera is assigned its own network address. By typing that address into an Internet browser, you can see what that camera is seeing from wherever you are.

Video surveillance components vary widely in cost, depending on features and quality. Network cameras alone range from under $100 to more than $1,000. Most buyers will be able to install their video surveillance system themselves by following the instructions, Graham says.

But if you’re not interested in doing that, AT&T last week announced that it is going to offer a remote home monitoring service for an upfront cost of $199 and $9.95 per month after that. Subscribers can use personal computers and Cingular Wireless devices to remotely view the home and receive alerts if the temperature falls or a motion sensor is triggered.

Source: The New York Times, Jay Romano (10/28/2006)

Scottsdale, Ariz. Local real estate agents provide door lock boxes to disabled seniors living alone. Police and fire personnel keep the box keys to use in emergencies. Let me know if you need one!

Never hesitate to call me, anytime. Even if it is just to ask a simple question.

Hope you enjoyed this newsletter...let me know if you have suggestions or if you would like me to write an article on any real estate subject.

Please remember that selling or buying your home is not a "do-it-yourself" project.

Call me, and I'll handle all the details. I also have a "Moving Coach"! The service is Free for my clients.

Please note: This email and any attachments contain confidential and/or privileged information for the sole use of the intended recipient. If you are not the intended recipient you may not read, disseminate, distribute or copy this email message or any attachments. Please notify the sender immediately (by reply email or phone) if you have received this email message by mistake and delete this email message, along with any attachments from your system. Email transmission cannot be guaranteed to be secure or error-free, as information could be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, delayed or may be incomplete. The Sender does not accept any liability for any errors, omissions or viruses in the contents of this email message or any attachment. This email also conforms with the Arizona Commercial Electronic Mailing Act of 2003. Your Privacy is important to me. I do not share your email information with any other party. If you do not wish to network in this way and desire to be removed from my newsletter email list, simply send me an email with "remove" in the subject line (click on the "email Bill" link. You will be excluded from the list, in a few days. Copyright 2006 Bill Duffey. All Rights Reserved.

To remove yourself from my mailing list, you can opt-out by just sending me an email.

NOTE: If your home or property is currently listed for sale with a licensed Real Estate Broker, this is not intended to be a solicitation of that listing. It is not our intention to solicit the listing of another real estate Company.

If you are viewing this website, you have agreed to it's LEGAL STATEMENT <please click here to read.

If you do not agree to the terms and conditions of this agreement, please leave the site, now.

Scottsdale AZ Real Estate | Bill Duffey | REMAX | Carefree, Cave Creek, Paradise Valley and North Phoenix - Homes, Land and Commercial Properties

RE/MAX Excalibur REALTOR®Bill Duffey, Scottsdale AZ 480-585-2904

Historical Value Trends

Send e- mail to wmduffey @ yahoo.com - questions or comments. >>> <<< Click on this icon to send e-mail)
Copyright © 1998-2008 All Rights Reserved by Bill Duffey - Luxury Real Estate in Scottsdale, Carefree, Paradise Valley and Cave Creek, Arizona

Click here, if you get lost on this site -- click here >>> http://www.billduffey.com <<< Click here

Scottsdale AZ Real Estate | Bill Duffey | REMAX | Carefree, Cave Creek, Paradise Valley and North Phoenix - Homes, Land and Commercial Properties

RE/MAX Excalibur REALTOR®Bill Duffey, Scottsdale AZ 480-585-2904

Historical Value Trends

Send e- mail to wmduffey @ yahoo.com - questions or comments. >>> <<< Click on this icon to send e-mail) Copyright © 1998-2008 All Rights Reserved by Bill Duffey - Luxury Real Estate in Scottsdale, Carefree, Paradise Valley and Cave Creek, Arizona

Click here, if you get lost on this site -- click here >>> http://www.billduffey.com <<< Click here

Send e- mail to wmduffey @ yahoo.com - questions or comments. >>> <<< Click on this icon to send e-mail)
Copyright © 1998-2008 All Rights Reserved by Bill Duffey - Luxury Real Estate in Scottsdale, Carefree, Paradise Valley and Cave Creek, Arizona